Escalation in the Middle East: Strategic implications for Mozambique
Early on Saturday morning, the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iranian military, intelligence, and government facilities, causing significant damage and casualties. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israeli cities and US military bases and assets in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar. Since then, the conflict has escalated, with groups such as Hezbollah also attacking Israel. The conflict has already inflicted significant losses on Iran. State media have confirmed the deaths of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and senior military commanders in Tehran. On the American side, three service personnel have died during combat operations.
The situation continues to deteriorate, with all parties stepping up their rhetoric regarding ongoing attacks. The crisis has disrupted regional airspace and maritime security and driven up oil prices, as Iran has blocked the flow of goods through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes through this critical chokepoint. Although the strait remains open, ships are avoiding it due to insurance concerns, as there is no cover in the event of accidents. As a result, fewer vessels are using the strait, which is expected to have an even greater impact on oil prices as supply dwindles. This morning, Brent crude rose by as much as 10 per cent, and many analysts expect prices to approach or exceed $100 per barrel if the conflict continues. Mozambique’s main concerns are maintaining safe trade routes, managing the impact of rising oil prices and determining its diplomatic stance at the United Nations amidst the escalating conflict.
Energy prices
Rising oil prices are putting fiscal pressure on Mozambique, a net fuel importer. Today, oil prices have risen by 8 per cent and natural gas prices by 25 per cent. OPEC and Russia are reported to have agreed to increase production, with OPEC+ planning a rise of 206,000 barrels per day to ease global prices. According to the US Energy Information Administration, around 20.9 million barrels per day pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing instability in the Strait could disrupt oil infrastructure in the Middle East. Higher oil prices increase transport costs and affect daily life in Mozambique. Southern African countries may also see an increase in demand for maritime transport across the Indian Ocean and around the Cape of Good Hope, as ships take longer and more expensive routes.
Maritime and trade routes
This situation presents an opportunity for Mozambican ports, such as Maputo and Beira, to expand their supply, refuelling and transhipment services. However, only the most developed ports can absorb the increased demand. South African ports, such as Durban and Cape Town, are better placed due to their advanced infrastructure. The security crisis in the Red Sea following the war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023 has severely affected global trade. Serious incidents involving drones and missiles have forced major shipping lines to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, causing significant delays and higher transport costs.
UNCTAD reports that, in the first week of March 2024, the total gross tonnage of ships calling at the Cape of Good Hope increased by 85 per cent, based on a seven-day moving average, compared with the levels recorded in the first half of December 2023. The same analysis highlighted the positive performance of the port of Maputo, reflecting the authorities’ commitment to trade facilitation. The growing strategic importance of Mozambique’s ports increases the need for coordinated action on infrastructure development and trade facilitation, as regional instability in the Middle East could alter trade patterns. The port of Maputo, which aims to become a logistics hub, could attract further investment and attention, given that security concerns persist in the Middle East.
Diplomatic response
The international community is calling on all parties to exercise restraint and avoid escalation. The United Nations, the European Union, and the Red Cross have warned of the risk of a regional conflict with serious consequences for civilians, calling on the parties to respect international humanitarian law, protect civilians and immediately cease hostilities. The United Kingdom, France, Germany, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, Belgium, Canada, Ireland, and Venezuela – although they hold differing views on the conflict – have issued press releases condemning the violence and calling for the resumption of negotiations, the prevention of further escalation and respect for international law.
The African Union (AU), in its press release on the military escalation between the US and Iran, joined the international community’s statement, calling for an urgent de-escalation and sustained dialogue, and emphasising that all parties must act in full compliance with international law to safeguard international peace and security. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has not yet issued a joint press release, and member states are responding individually. In major conflicts in the past, Mozambique has aligned itself with the African Union, advocating for dialogue and adherence to the United Nations Charter. The country is recognised for prioritising the peaceful resolution of conflicts. It is therefore expected that Mozambique will soon support the international community and the AU’s statement, calling for a de-escalation and peaceful negotiations.
References
https://unctad.org/news/red-sea-crisis-and-implications-trade-facilitation-africa
https://www.eiu.com/n/red-sea-crisis-affects-african-ports/
https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20260228/au-commission-press-statement-us-iran-military-escalation
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/world-reacts-to-us-israel-attack-on-iran-tehran-retaliation https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-the-Iran-Conflict-Could-Trigger-a-Wider-Economic-Shock.html https://www.ft.com/content/dac7a77d-e0f4-4f52-a3d4-55b145e67347
https://www.cfr.org/articles/strait-hormuz-us-iran-maritime-flash-point?utm_medium=social_owned&utm_source=li
The situation continues to deteriorate, with all parties stepping up their rhetoric regarding ongoing attacks. The crisis has disrupted regional airspace and maritime security and driven up oil prices, as Iran has blocked the flow of goods through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes through this critical chokepoint. Although the strait remains open, ships are avoiding it due to insurance concerns, as there is no cover in the event of accidents. As a result, fewer vessels are using the strait, which is expected to have an even greater impact on oil prices as supply dwindles. This morning, Brent crude rose by as much as 10 per cent, and many analysts expect prices to approach or exceed $100 per barrel if the conflict continues. Mozambique’s main concerns are maintaining safe trade routes, managing the impact of rising oil prices and determining its diplomatic stance at the United Nations amidst the escalating conflict.
Energy prices
Rising oil prices are putting fiscal pressure on Mozambique, a net fuel importer. Today, oil prices have risen by 8 per cent and natural gas prices by 25 per cent. OPEC and Russia are reported to have agreed to increase production, with OPEC+ planning a rise of 206,000 barrels per day to ease global prices. According to the US Energy Information Administration, around 20.9 million barrels per day pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing instability in the Strait could disrupt oil infrastructure in the Middle East. Higher oil prices increase transport costs and affect daily life in Mozambique. Southern African countries may also see an increase in demand for maritime transport across the Indian Ocean and around the Cape of Good Hope, as ships take longer and more expensive routes.
Maritime and trade routes
This situation presents an opportunity for Mozambican ports, such as Maputo and Beira, to expand their supply, refuelling and transhipment services. However, only the most developed ports can absorb the increased demand. South African ports, such as Durban and Cape Town, are better placed due to their advanced infrastructure. The security crisis in the Red Sea following the war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023 has severely affected global trade. Serious incidents involving drones and missiles have forced major shipping lines to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, causing significant delays and higher transport costs.
UNCTAD reports that, in the first week of March 2024, the total gross tonnage of ships calling at the Cape of Good Hope increased by 85 per cent, based on a seven-day moving average, compared with the levels recorded in the first half of December 2023. The same analysis highlighted the positive performance of the port of Maputo, reflecting the authorities’ commitment to trade facilitation. The growing strategic importance of Mozambique’s ports increases the need for coordinated action on infrastructure development and trade facilitation, as regional instability in the Middle East could alter trade patterns. The port of Maputo, which aims to become a logistics hub, could attract further investment and attention, given that security concerns persist in the Middle East.
Diplomatic response
The international community is calling on all parties to exercise restraint and avoid escalation. The United Nations, the European Union, and the Red Cross have warned of the risk of a regional conflict with serious consequences for civilians, calling on the parties to respect international humanitarian law, protect civilians and immediately cease hostilities. The United Kingdom, France, Germany, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, Belgium, Canada, Ireland, and Venezuela – although they hold differing views on the conflict – have issued press releases condemning the violence and calling for the resumption of negotiations, the prevention of further escalation and respect for international law.
The African Union (AU), in its press release on the military escalation between the US and Iran, joined the international community’s statement, calling for an urgent de-escalation and sustained dialogue, and emphasising that all parties must act in full compliance with international law to safeguard international peace and security. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has not yet issued a joint press release, and member states are responding individually. In major conflicts in the past, Mozambique has aligned itself with the African Union, advocating for dialogue and adherence to the United Nations Charter. The country is recognised for prioritising the peaceful resolution of conflicts. It is therefore expected that Mozambique will soon support the international community and the AU’s statement, calling for a de-escalation and peaceful negotiations.
References
https://unctad.org/news/red-sea-crisis-and-implications-trade-facilitation-africa
https://www.eiu.com/n/red-sea-crisis-affects-african-ports/
https://au.int/en/pressreleases/20260228/au-commission-press-statement-us-iran-military-escalation
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/world-reacts-to-us-israel-attack-on-iran-tehran-retaliation https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-the-Iran-Conflict-Could-Trigger-a-Wider-Economic-Shock.html https://www.ft.com/content/dac7a77d-e0f4-4f52-a3d4-55b145e67347
https://www.cfr.org/articles/strait-hormuz-us-iran-maritime-flash-point?utm_medium=social_owned&utm_source=li